Why I Am pissed off with TISS...

Ramesh Kumar from New Delhi


Is Driverless Truck Desirable in India?

This question arises in the wake of recent comments heard from the corridors of Tata Institute of Social Sciences, Mumbai that the driver shortage will soon be mitigated through two developments viz.,

1) The advent of Driverless Trucks
2) Rivigo

Oh, really?

This response of a panel of honorable social scientists came during an interview with a 40-year old supply chain veteran when he had submitted his proposal for a Ph.D thesis on the need for creating better working and living conditions  for long haul  drivers and thereby mitigate the looming shortage.

By the way, the wannabe Doctorate supply chain practitioner is yet to recover from the shock administered by the brainy TISS team. My first reaction was their lack of touch with ground reality. Literally, I was unequivocally pissed off with  TISS.

The Ministry of Road Transport & Highways (MoRT&H) has been maintaining that the shortage is pegged at 27% as of today. A monumental figure. Considering that the sale of heavy commercial vehicles (trucks in common parlance) in FY 15-16 was approximately 7,00,000 according to Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM) and the projected CAGR of 12-14% every year here onwards, India needs the same number of fresh Formally Trained Drivers (FTDs) every year. Yes, every year! Despite the grandiose promotion of multimodal mix of rail and coastal shipping, surface or road transport continues to hog 60% freight movement.
Enough of number crunching. Now onto the ground...

Who gets into long haul truck driving? Not the padhe likhe sort. Truck driving as a career option does not appear on the  radar of even Class 10 failed from the underprivileged segment of society. A microscopic examination of those who are already into this profession willingly or unwillingly reveals that most school information is mostly fake, manufactured by the touts at RTOs helping  them get a driving licence with no formal training. It is altogether another pitable story that India has no formal driver training institutes (DTIs). A few by Ashok Leyland, Tata Motors, IL&FS, Eicher Volvo is a nano-drop in the ocean.

What's the employment scenario? An alarming rising proportion, notwithstanding the laudable GDP growth. Alarming? Because it is more or less jobless growth, thanks to automation, partly and other factors. Even here, we are mostly talking about those who have been "educated" in the formal sense. A degree in hand. Just a piece of paper, which was once considered an an automatic passport to job market. No longer. 

A sizeable chunk from hinterland stay away from education per se. So, their absorption into formal job market is negligible. This is where the TISS contention that the driver shortage is a short term phenomenon and will get addressed over the next 5-6 years via the introduction of driverless trucks gives a wild ass kick. Not, the kickass thrill!

Surprisingly, these social scientists have not understood the social implications of shutting the doors of job opportunity for these less privileged (read illiterate or less educated) for whom truck driving is a good option. Even from the political perspective, it will be a disaster for parties when the government greenlights driverless trucks in India.
It would be suicidal even otherwise. Here is a golden opportunity to absorb the steady stream of candidates favorably considering truck driving as a career option - as a last resort, though. Yes, it is a fact of life that those getting into the profession do not cherish the classroom formal training and prefer the guru-shisya route that is in vogue since the advent of trucking in India, courtesy the British that had brought trucks for its troop movement more than a century ago.

But their aversion towards formal driver training can be overcome. It is  noteworthy here to draw attention to the fact that better educated set is exploring truck driving as a career option. This writer has met graduates in remote villages either already driving trucks and showing interest. The advent of onboard electronic management in Indian trucks certainly needs a better educated lot vis-a-vis the present one.

Another insight worth noting is the reluctance of truck manufacturers to implement the recent compulsory airconditioning of truck cabins citing that fleet owners do not wish to bear this additional spend. Even fleet owners arguing that their drivers prefer non-airconditioned variety. Nonetheless, it is mandatory to improve the working conditions of long haul truck drivers. If they are not used to airconditioned trucks, they will get used to it sooner than later.

Are the fleet owners not shifted from dungeon narrow gullies of Mahipalpur to swanky centrally airconditioned  offices in Gurgaon or Punjabibagh - some with glass-fronted cabins trying to show they have come off age? If they can, why not their drivers? What is missing is the will to act upon and improve. Not as charity. But out  of sustaining their business. Remember the government admits there is a 27% shortage. What's the point  of buying a truck if there are none to steer it? Got it?

Cost factor is the real issue here. Indian fleet owners, it is agreed, do not want to spend a Rs.50,000 towards aircondioning of truck cabins. It is a small sum. Now, examine the cost of driverless truck. Indian fleet owners will collapse when they see the price tag. Even a hefty discount, which is most likely, as an introductory offer as and when it comes to India will render our fleet owners breathless.

Conceding that driverless trucks would reduce human error - a major element in road accidents - Indian traffic discipline in cities or highways is  nothing to gloat. Unlike, Otto driverless trucks ferrying Carlsberg beer consignment in the United States, where there is a greater sense  of traffic discipline, it is dreadful to imagine a load of Nissan-Renault's most popular Kwid loaded car carrier plying on the south-north highway corridor without a driver at the steering. We, Indians (including the well educated), are not a disciplined lot.

Now, let us move on to the second pearl of wisdom from the TISS panel. Rivigo is one of the start-ups in transport ecosystem that is making waves with its comparatively more driver-friendly approach with its 2,000 plus owned fleet. Indeed, a welcome scenario. I can declare that Rivigo's arrival has rattled the entire conventional transport fraternity. Mera kya hoga? syndrome.

Yes, Rivigo is a fresh breath of air. But one swallow does not make summer. Is there a possibility of Rivigo clones on the Indian transport firmament? Yes. Over long term. I mean long term in the Keynesian parlance. Remember what he had said: In the long run, we are all dead.

Why Rivigo model is tough to copy? It is an asset heavy business enterprise. Indian transport segment - not bestowed the industry status - is more of agents (small, medium, large) and companies practizing light asset model, owning a miniscule number of trucks to get the transporter tag and mostly accessing trucks owned by others who again can boast of 5-10 or even less. With no business acument to procure business and manage, they are comfortable going through the time tested management agency system. End users (read the India Inc) is equally  blameworthy whose tariff fixation is a gamble playing in their favour. They take advantage of the pathetic demand-supply mismatch. Take it or leave it approach, thus making fleet owners who are the backbone of any economy as beggars. This kind of approach cannot be sustained for long.

By the way, there are hushed conversations in the smoking corners or watering holes or vast lawns of IIT-IIMs that are incubating start ups in the transport ecosystem among other things that the day is not far off when graduates will get into truck driving because that is the only ready career option available. Air conditioned cabins. Wow. And Rivigo type driver-friendly management. Far away from the current motor malik-chalak rishta. Plus, actually, truck driver earning capacity is far better than the non-existent formal sector jobs. (My own study of over 100,000 truck drivers over the past seven years confirms that a long haul truck driver walks away with approx. Rs.30,000 every month though there is no formal letter of appointment. An enticing package!)

Driverless trucks is a pill that TISS can swallow and theorize. Not the occupant - whoever it is and whichever political party - of 7 Lok Kalyan Marg. The Bharat will erupt. I repeat, the Bharat where two thirds of Republic of India lives. It is a lunatic concept from the Indian perspective. Wish, am wrong. Strange such ideas germinate from the portals of TISS!

--
The writer is Editor of DRIVERS DUNIYA, India's FIRST magazine in English focused on long haul truck driving community. He has travelled 28,000 km in trucks on Indian Highways and authored three books. Plus, he is the Co-promoter of TransportMitra Private Limited. He is reachable at ramesh@konsultramesh.com